Market Summary for the Beginning of February

 As normal, January was a relatively slow month for sales with a total of 5,788 reported through ARMLS for all areas and types. This compares with 7,611 for December and 4,704 for January 2009. Nevertheless this is the second highest sales count ever for a January with only January 2005 coming in higher at 6,589. The annual sales rate has now risen to 93,420, a level we last saw in May 2006.

Within Greater Phoenix, 46% of sales were REOs with 23.6% short sales and 30.4% normal transactions. So REOs took the same percentage as in December but short sales grew at the expense of normal transactions.

December's sales within Greater Phoenix included an unusually large number of high-end REOs which were largely absent in January, so REO pricing plunged 7.3% from $74.32 to $68.59 per sq. ft. However, short sale pricing improved by 3.6% from $82.04 to $85.02 and normal pricing improved 3.3% from $119.93 to $123.92. This reversal of the trends that prevailed in 2009 was foretold accurately by the pending listings as mentioned in our January 3 summary. The combined effect was that overall price per sq. ft. advanced slightly from $90.20 to $90.64. Median pricing was much weaker due to the large number of low priced properties but average pricing was stable, buoyed by a stronger market in the mid-range.

Pending listings have risen to 10,741, which at first sight looks good compared with the 7,382 recorded on February 2, 2009. However I am not very impressed with the rate of growth since the start of January (12.9%), since in the same period last year the growth was 34.1%. With the growing number of short sales we must also look at AWC listings and these are currently running at 6,322, up 11.2% since January 1 whereas they were up 30.6% in the same period in 2009. Again, not particularly sparkling growth for the season compared with the buying frenzy that developed during the first quarter of 2009. So I would conclude that demand is still strong but is losing some momentum.

Meanwhile supply of active listings has grown 5.5% since January 1 compared with no change for the same period in 2009. This increase in supply coupled with a loss of momentum in demand has dropped the Cromford Market Index™ from its peak of 126.9 at the end of October 2009 to a level of 117.9 now. This confirms a modest but definite weakening trend in the market balance, the first we have reported since November 2008. However we must remember that an index of 100 is balanced, so we are still well above that level.

The weakening is most significant for single family detached homes in the price range $75,000 to $125,000 with the prices ranges from $150,000 to $600,000 looking relatively strong. The price range $75,000 to $125,000 currently represents as much as 26.3% of the annual market by unit count, so any weakness here is significant. The situation for apartments and townhouses has brightened in recent months with prices having now reached levels that are attracting more buying activity. The contract ratio for Greater Phoenix apartments is now 36 compared with 8 at the same time in 2009. That for Greater Phoenix town homes is 40 compared with 8 at the same time in 2009.

There was a distinct lull in the foreclosure storm in January with "only" 6,762 new notices being filed in Maricopa County. This is the lowest monthly total since November 2008. However the last week of January was busy and I expect February's total will exceed this, so let's not get too excited. Maricopa trustee deeds numbered 4,452 which was 15% lower than December but at a similar level to much of last year.

Looking ahead we see fairly stable $/SF pricing for sales in February with a slight dip noticeable by the third week, driven by lower pricing in the REO market which is less active now than for most of 2009. However we should be able to celebrate our first positive annual appreciation number sometime during the last week of February. With today's overall $/SF at $91.51 and that on February 28 2009 being $89.77, this is not a difficult target. The typical home owner will probably respond "positive appreciation, are you kidding me?", but I am not kidding. The typical home owner probably does not realize quite how low average $/SF prices were last March.

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

4 out of 10 Recent Buyers Used FHA Loans

According to the most recent REALTORS® Confidence Index, 39 percent of recent buyers purchased a home with a Federal Housing Administration-insured loan. REALTORS® who took part in the November survey also reported that the number of first-time home buyers continued to climb to 51 percent.

“FHA helps provide affordable mortgage financing to home owners, particularly first-time home buyers who are so important in drawing down inventory to help stabilize the current housing market,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder. “These recent survey results reaffirm that, despite its current challenges, FHA is a critical part of the American housing fabric.”

Distressed Sales, HVCC Concerns
The RCI results also indicated that distressed sales increased to 33 percent of all home sales last month, and that both investors and first-time home buyers are competing for these properties. The preponderance of distressed properties on the market has also influenced buyers’ perceptions of other homes for sale. REALTORS® report that many buyers have pricing expectations that treat every property as if it were in foreclosure.

In addition, REALTORS® expressed ongoing concerns with the impact of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct on recent appraisals. According to some survey respondents, inexperienced or out-of-area appraisers continue to rely heavily on sales prices of distressed properties, even when other comps are available.

“As the first, best source for real estate information, REALTORS® have their finger on the pulse of current housing trends, and their knowledge and experience offer valuable insights into today’s real estate market,” Golder said. “We know that an economic recovery is not possible without a housing recovery, and we will continue to work with policymakers at all levels to ensure that this happens.”

—NAR

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

Arizona housing market picks up; Foreclosures Drop

Land Advisors' debut real-estate forecast event last week drew a crowd that packed an Arizona Biltmore resort ballroom.

Here are some key data and predictions from the event, "Real Estate: Evolution of an Industry."

But the building market is picking back up as the oversupply of speculatively built homes sells.

"Homebuilders are out of their depression," said Greg Vogel, chief executive of Scottsdale-based Land Advisors. So far this year, 7,200 home lots ready for construction have sold in metropolitan Phoenix. About 42 percent of those lots were bought by homebuilders, and they don't plan on holding on to them for long.

• Jim Belfiore, president of Belfiore Real Estate, said almost one-fourth of metro Phoenix's current new-home developments will sell out in the next six months. New-home prices fell about 15 percent in most subdivisions during the past year.

• Phoenix's housing market hit bottom in early April, said Mike Orr, principal of the Cromford Report, a real-estate research firm. Based on current price trends, the housing market could start to see positive appreciation rates by March.

Last month was the second-best November for home sales in the area's history. Only November 2004 was better.

Meanwhile, both foreclosures and preforeclosures fell in Phoenix during November. Foreclosures dropped 21 percent from October to 3,808, according to the Information Market.

Preforeclosures dipped 9 percent, to 7,149. The number of overall pending foreclosures was almost flat last month, at 50,510.

Could the foreclosure market be past its peak? Are lenders doing more loan modifications, or are more struggling homeowners avoiding foreclosure by doing short sales?

December numbers will be telling.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2009/12/08/20091208biz-catherine1209.html

Things you should know when buying a home in Arizona

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

Could the Iowa Hawkeyes being coming to the Fiesta Bowl

Being from Iowa....  I would love to see the Iowa Hawkeyes come to the Fiesta Bowl. GO HAWKEYES

Iowa is always a bowl favorite due to the huge crowds it brings....  Hope to see you in Arizona. 

BCS bowl berth still possibility for Hawks

Special Alert: First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit Extended Into 2010!

It's official. President Obama has signed a bill that extends the tax credit for first-time homebuyers (FTHBs) into the first half of 2010. This program had been scheduled to expire on November 30, 2009.

In addition to extending the tax credit of up to $8,000 through June 30, 2010, the extension measure also opens up opportunities for others who are not buying a home for the first time.

So Who Gets What?
The program that has existed for FTHBs remains intact with the one exception that more people are now eligible based on an increase in the amount of income someone may now earn.

Additionally, the program now gives those who already own a residence some additional reasons to move to a new home. This incentive comes in the form of a tax credit of up to $6,500 for qualified purchasers who have owned and occupied a primary residence for a period of five consecutive years during the last eight years.

Deadlines
In order to qualify for the credit, all contracts need to be in effect no later than April 30, 2010 and close no later than June 30, 2010.

Higher Income Caps in Effect
The amount of income someone can earn and qualify for the full amount of the credit has been increased.

Single tax filers who earn up to $125,000 are eligible for the total credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial credit. However, single filers who earn $145,000 and above are ineligible.

Joint filers who earn up to $225,000 are eligible for the total credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial credit. However, joint filers who earn $245,000 and above are ineligible.

Maximum Purchase Price
Qualifying buyers may purchase a property with a maximum sales price of $800,000.

First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit – Frequently Asked Questions
Here are answers to some commonly asked questions about the tax credit.

What is a tax credit?
A tax credit is a direct reduction in tax liability owed by an individual to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). In the event no taxes are owed, the IRS will issue a check for the amount of the tax credit an individual is owed. Unlike the tax credit that existed in 2008, this credit does not require repayment unless the home, at any time in the first 36 months of ownership, is no longer an individual's primary residence.

What is the tax credit for first-time homebuyers (FTHBs)?
An eligible homebuyer may request from the IRS a tax credit of up to $8,000 or 10% of the purchase price for a home. If the amount of the home purchased is $75,000, the maximum amount the credit can be is $7,500. If the amount of the home purchased is $100,000, the amount of the credit may not exceed $8,000.

Who is eligible for the FTHB tax credit?
Anyone who has not owned a primary residence in the previous 36 months, prior to closing and the transfer of title, is eligible. This applies both to single taxpayers and married couples. In the case where there is a married couple, if either spouse has owned a primary residence in the last 36 months, neither would qualify. In the case where an individual has owned property that has not been a primary residence, such as a second home or investment property, that individual would be eligible.

As mentioned above, the tax credit has been expanded so that existing homeowners who have owned and occupied a primary residence for a period of five consecutive years during the last eight years are now eligible for a tax credit of up to $6,500.

How do I claim the credit?
For those taking advantage of the tax credit in 2009, you may choose to either apply for the credit with your 2009 tax return or you may apply for the credit sooner by filing an amended 2008 tax return with Form 5405 (http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f5405.pdf).

Can you claim the tax credit in advance of purchasing a property?
No. The IRS has recently begun prosecuting people who have claimed credits where a purchase had not taken place.

Can a taxpayer claim a credit if the property is purchased from a seller with seller financing and the seller retains title to the property?
Yes. In situations where the buyer purchases the property, even though the seller retains legal title, the taxpayer may file for the credit. Examples of this would include a land contract, contract for deed, etc. According to the IRS, factors that would demonstrate the ownership of the property would include: 1. the right of possession, 2. the right to obtain legal title upon full payment of the purchase price, 3. the right to construct improvements, 4. the obligation to pay property taxes, 5. the risk of loss, 6. the responsibility to insure the property and 7. the duty to maintain the property.

Are there other restrictions to taking the credit?
Yes. According to the IRS, if any of the following describe your situation, a credit would not be due.

• You buy your home from a close relative. This includes your spouse, parent, grandparent, child or grandchild.
• You do not use the home as your principal residence.
• You sell your home before the end of the year.
• You are a nonresident alien.
• You are, or were, eligible to claim the District of Columbia first-time homebuyer credit for any taxable year. (This does not apply for a home purchased in 2009.)
• Your home financing comes from tax-exempt mortgage revenue bonds. (This does not apply for a home purchased in 2009.)
• You owned a principal residence at any time during the three years prior to the date of purchase of your new home. For example, if you bought a home on July 1, 2009, you cannot take the credit for that home if you owned, or had an ownership interest in, another principal residence at any time from July 2, 2006, through July 1, 2009.

Can you buy a home from a step-relative and be eligible for the credit?
Yes. Provided the person you are buying a home from is not a direct blood relative, the purchase would be allowed.

Can parent(s) who will not live in the property cosign for a mortgage for their child and the child that is a qualifying FTHB still be eligible for the credit?
Yes.

Can a separated spouse who has not owned a home for four years qualify for the FTHB tax credit if the spouse has owned a property anytime in the last three years?
No. However, the spouse may be eligible for the repeat buyer credit. The best path to take in any situation regarding income taxes is to speak with a professional tax preparer or CPA.

If you have any questions that fall outside the situations here, give me a call

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

Bank-owned . . . and not improving until the economy does

Subprime loans were problem, but overall, broader economic woes contributed to pain

Home-foreclosure activity has spilled across every geographic and socioeconomic border this year, proving that no community was too cautious, clever or well-funded to remain unscathed.

Subprime lending gave the home-foreclosure crisis its initial push, but the problem could not have reached existing proportions without feeding on a host of broader economic problems, according to real-estate experts responding to the latest Valley Home Values data, provided by Information Market.

"It has nothing to do with the value of the home," said Mike Wasmann, president of the Arizona Association of Realtors. "It has to do with people not having any money.

The foreclosure rate has accelerated in more centrally located, often pricier neighborhoods while slowing down a bit in newer, more remote communities where the foreclosure floodgate burst in late 2007.

Job losses, salary cuts, unpaid work furloughs and failed investments were among the contributors to home foreclosures in communities with few first-time buyers and little subprime-lending activity, Valley real- estate analysts said.

They also pointed to home-equity loans as a major cause of foreclosures in older, more established neighborhoods, noting that many residents of those areas who face foreclosure today owed very little on their mortgages before the appearance of equity emboldened them to borrow against the home's value.

"A lot of people got hung out to dry on homes that they've had for a long time because they refinanced," said Jay Butler, Arizona State University professor and realty-studies director.

Role reversal

The ZIP code 85007 in central Phoenix, which houses more than its share of Arizona bluebloods and political insiders, was largely unaffected by area foreclosure activity in 2008, even as neighboring ZIP codes saw home values lopped in half.

But this year, the median home price in 85007 collapsed, falling 76.5 percent in the first eight months, according to analysis by The Arizona Republic using data from the Phoenix-based Information Market.

Median home-price comparisons only examine changes in value among homes that were bought and sold during the comparison period. They do not indicate the median value of all homes in the area.

Phoenix was the biggest overall home-value loser in 2009, with the city's median home price dropping from $229,000 to $82,000 from September 2008 to Aug. 31.

A year earlier, Phoenix was among the best-performing Valley cities and towns, with a one-year median home-price drop of about 15 percent.

In contrast, Queen Creek experienced a much steeper decline of nearly 24 percent from September 2007 to August 2008. In the past 12 months, the decline has eased to slightly more than 9 percent.

Queen Creek homes have held more value than even the mansions of Paradise Valley, according to sales data.

The Valley's most expensive community posted its first double-digit, one-year drop in median sale price since before the housing boom.

However, Paradise Valley is still the breakaway winner in a survey of median-home prices in Maricopa County over the past five years. No other community could touch its five-year median price increase of more than 56 percent, from September 2004 to August 2009.

Outlying ZIP codes generally have seen home values begin to level off, while price drops in more centrally located ZIP codes have gathered momentum.

Foreclosure activity also has shifted toward the urban center, Valley Home Values figures show.

For example, less than half of this year's home-sales transactions in Queen Creek have involved foreclosures, while they have accounted for at least 60 percent of sales in most Phoenix residential areas.

Not every local housing market changed dramatically this year, according to the data.

Tempe and Scottsdale housing markets have enjoyed two consecutive years of relative stability, while El Mirage and Glendale have suffered relatively high foreclosure rates and sharp price declines two years in a row.

Local experts offered a variety of theories to explain the reversals, but they share a common theme: Foreclosures are becoming a bigger problem for the upper-middle class and even the previously wealthy.

One reason is loss of income, they said, especially among those households in which the primary source of wealth was real estate. But the threat of luxury-home foreclosure has not been limited to residents with stalled careers in home building and property sales, experts said

Jumbo problem

In some respects, higher-priced neighborhoods have been playing catch-up with the less expensive areas, where rapid-fire foreclosures first began around late 2007.

Butler said the foreclosure wave appears to have run its course in starter-home communities such as Buckeye and Queen Creek.

"You sort of run out of things you can foreclose on," he said.

It's far less clear where the Valley is overall in terms of working through troubled "jumbo" mortgage loans, which are difficult to refinance because they are too large to secure a government guarantee of repayment.

It's likely foreclosures on more-expensive homes, those priced above the Federal Housing Administration limit of $346,000, will take longer to purge from the housing market, in part because they will be much harder for lenders to sell.

Butler said he expects to see another post-holiday foreclosure surge in early 2010 that undoubtedly will include more high-end homes.

He pointed to the surge in foreclosures in February - about 4,300, a record at the time - as evidence that struggling homeowners had resolved to make it through the holiday season before ceasing payment.

Butler said many households have lost any financial cushion they might have once had, which means even the slightest financial setback could lead to foreclosure.

"Those that stretched their income to get the home, they're in trouble," he said.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/abg/articles/2009/10/15/20091015abg-vhv-main1015.html

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

Young people are potentially the winners in this recession.

A Historic Time to Buy

Young people just starting to invest and buying their first homes are potentially the winners in this recession.

First-time homebuyers, most between the ages of 25 and 45, accounted for about 45 percent of home sales from January through July 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS®

"This is a historic time," says George Jaramillo, a 35-year-old business analyst in Atlanta, who recently bought three homes, two of them foreclosures. "It's a great opportunity to make some great gains in the future."

A study by investment company T. Rowe Price points out that investing when prices are low can result in amazing gains. For instance, between 1970 and 1990, the annualized rate of return for the S&P 500 was 11.5 percent.

"We need to be shouting from the rooftops that this is not the time to get out of the market if you're young," says Christine Fahlund, a senior financial planner with T. Rowe Price. "This is the time to be in the market."

http://www.realtor.org/rmodaily.nsf/pages/News2009100601

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

Retail Real Estate --- Grim Assessment

Signs advertise available retail spaces in the Chandler Mercado shopping center at the northwest corner of Arizona Avenue and Warner Road in Chandler. Feb. 10, 2009.

No improvement seen for retail real estate

Store closings will continue to outpace openings and rents will persist in a downward spiral, driving some shopping centers into foreclosure as the Valley's job market continues to shrink.

Housing slump that caused the worst recession in seven decades is abating.

Home prices in Arizona fell less than forecast

The worst has passed, said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. We expect prices to bottom out around the middle of next year and then look for modest price appreciation for the next several years. There is still a tremendous oversupply of homes in most major markets.

Stock index futures rose after the report and Treasury securities extended losses. The contract on the Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 0.4 percent to 1,062.8 at 9:23 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.32 percent from 3.28 percent late yesterday.

Better Than Forecast

The index was forecast to fall 14.2 percent, according to the median projection of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 12.5 percent to 15 percent. The measure fell 15.4 percent in the 12 months ended in June.

Year-over-year records began in 2001 and the gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.

All 20 cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a smaller year-over-year price decrease in July than in the prior month. Las Vegas showed the biggest plunge at 31 percent, followed by Phoenix at 29 percent. Cleveland showed the smallest decline at 1.3 percent.

Compared with the prior month, 17 of the 20 areas covered showed an increase, led by a 3.1 percent jump in Minneapolis and a 2.9 percent increase in San Francisco. Las Vegas suffered the biggest one-month decrease at 1.9 percent.

More Sales

Combined sales of new and existing homes have risen for four out of the last five months, signaling the worst of the housing crisis is over.

Sales of new homes climbed in August to the highest level in almost a year, the Commerce Department reported last week. Sales of existing homes unexpectedly declined, while remaining at the second-highest level in 23 months, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.

Fed policy makers last week said they would keep the benchmark lending rate near zero for an extended period, while noting that the economy and housing had strengthened. They also said they would slow the central banks purchases of mortgage debt and extend the program through the first quarter of 2010 in order to keep lending rates low.

Lennar Corp., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder, is among companies that see demand improving, even as losses mount. The Miami-based company said last week it expects to turn a profit in fiscal 2010.

Time to Buy

In the third quarter we started to see some real signs that the housing market is in fact starting to stabilize, Stuart Miller, Lennars chief executive officer, said on a Sept. 21 conference call. The sense that now is the time to buy is starting to gain momentum.

Mounting foreclosures present a risk of renewed price declines as more homes are thrown onto the market. Foreclosure filings in August exceeded 300,000 for the sixth straight month, according to data from RealtyTrac Inc. A total of 358,471 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month, 18 percent more than a year earlier.

KB Home, the Los Angeles-based homebuilder that sells to first-time buyers, on Sept. 25 reported a third-quarter loss exceeding analysts estimates and said a housing recovery isn't imminent.

The precise timing of a housing recovery remains uncertain, Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Mezger said on a conference call with analysts.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2009/09/29/20090929biz-homepricesindex0929.html

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

Mortgage Rates Remain Low, Increasing Affordability

Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.04 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending September 24, 2009, unchanged from last week when it averaged 5.04 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.09 percent.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.46 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.47 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.77 percent. This is the lowest the 15-year FRM has been since Freddie Mac started tracking it in 1991.

The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.51 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, unchanged from last week when it averaged 4.51 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.02 percent.

The one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.52 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.58 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.03 percent.

"Mortgage rates held relatively steady at three-month lows this week,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Correspondingly, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications jumped 12.8 percent over the week of September 18th to the strongest pace since late May, boosted by refinancing activity."

"In its September 23rd policy statement, the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated that it plans to keep its benchmark interest rate exceptionally low for an extended period. This will likely benefit consumers who opt for ARMs, because they are typically tied to shorter-term interest rates. The Fed also noted that activity in the economy and housing market has picked up and financial markets have improved.”

http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20090925_rates.htm

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

Changes to the $8,000 home buyer Tax Credit

 

Scottsdale Arizona - North Valley Home Prices Holding Steady

Valley home prices holding steady

3-month trend indicates 27-month freefall may have come to an end, ASU expert says

After a record-breaking 27 months of decline in the Valley's median home price, some of the most influential local real-estate analysts predict that home values finally have hit the bottom of the slide.

Arizona State University Professor Karl Guntermann reported Wednesday that the median price has held steady long enough to cautiously predict a coming period of relative price stability.

That doesn't mean all home prices will start to increase in the near future. Some houses, particularly the more expensive ones, should continue to decrease in value gradually, while less-expensive homes could hold steady or see moderate gains in value, Guntermann and other experts said.

Nor does it mean recent sellers are feeling any better about the amount they got for their homes. One couple who moved to Anthem recently liked the bargain they got here but still lamented the loss they took on a home in Washington state. Many sellers in the Valley felt the same pain.

"I lost $300,000 in equity on that home," 68-year-old Steve Trover said. "I got a great deal (on the Anthem home), but I'm not going to forget that $300,000."

Still, the overall rate of decline tracked by Guntermann's ASU Repeat Sales Index is finally showing improvement rather than deterioration.

"Clearly, the rate of decline has bottomed out and appears to be moving in the right direction," he said.

Caution is the guiding principle behind Guntermann's research. He doesn't call a trend a trend unless it has repeated itself at least three months in a row.

The positive trend first emerged in April and has remained consistent since, he said.

Guntermann tracks a sampling of homes that have sold multiple times in recent years, and he compares repeat sales of each home for changes in price.

In April, the median repeat home-sale price was 35 percent lower than it had been a year earlier. In May, the year-over-year difference decreased to 33 percent, and it has narrowed by an additional 2 percentage points each month since.

The actual median sale price has bobbed up and down slightly since April but has shown no major changes since then, Guntermann said. The median was $117,500 in April, and preliminary data show it was $119,000 in July, he added.

The median home prices peaked at $266,523 in June 2006, according to Phoenix-based Information Market.

Calling the bottom has been a subject of intense interest in metro Phoenix because much of the economy is tied to population growth and the building that springs from it.

Analyst Tom Ruff of Information Market said the ASU report validates a pronouncement he and colleague Mike Orr had made in April that home prices had hit bottom. "Lately, the news and the forecasts from leading economists have been much more positive, just as we said they would," Ruff said.

Still, he and Orr said the housing market entered a new, less encouraging phase in July. The number of foreclosures hit a new all-time high of about 5,300, and the median home price slipped a bit.

"July was unlike the first six months of the year," Orr said in his latest analysis. "We are now in a period of more uncertainty, with some more mixed signals coming from the data."

In Guntermann's preliminary data for June and July, the median price reached $120,000 in June and then decreased by $1,000 the following month.

Another issue on the horizon that could trigger a dip in home prices is an expected increase in home foreclosures in the coming months, according to leading auctioneers of bank-owned homes.

All of the local analysts interviewed said they expect the median home price to fall slightly in the coming months.

But housing analyst RL Brown and others noted that the Valley housing market always lags during the latter half of the year, and they advised homeowners not to panic.

Overall, Brown said he continues to be optimistic about the Valley's long-term prospects, even though he recognizes that economic factors such as employment and the availability of credit will have a significant influence.

One big improvement from a year ago, he said, is that home builders have sold off much of the excess inventory they had been saddled with when scores of prospective buyers canceled their new-home contracts.

Brown pointed out that despite all the economic hurdles, fears and past mistakes, nearly 10,000 homes have been sold each month in Maricopa County for the past three months.

"The economy is fraught with problems," he said, "but the fundamentals of this market are, by any reasonable definition, strong."

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/08/20/20090820biz-homeprices0820.html

Need help or can't find the house you're looking for?  Call me...I'll be happy to help :)

Candice Boggs
Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

New homes sales in The North Valley Soar - Scottsdale Real Estate

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. climbed 11 percent in June, the biggest gain in eight years, adding to evidence the slump that began in 2005 is stabilizing.

Sales increased to a 384,000 pace, higher than any forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the most since November, figures from the Commerce Department showed to day in Washington. The number of houses on the market dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade.

Falling prices and near record-low mortgage rates have started to lure buyers even as the unemployment rate rises. The worst recession in five decades may end in coming months as the downturns in housing and manufacturing ease.

"Things are bottoming," Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings Inc. in New York, said before the report. The gain "continues that notion of stabilization, but it's going to be difficult for builders to be selling at a much more rapid rate until the foreclosure issue subsides."

Economists forecast new home sales would rise to a 352,000, according to the median of 62 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 335,000 to 377,000. Commerce revised May's reading up to a 346,000 rate from a previously reported 342,000.

The median price of a new home decreased 12 percent to $206,200 from $234,300 in June 2008. Last month's value compares with $219,000 in May.

Sales of new homes were down 21 percent from June 2008. They reached a record-low 329,000 in January, down 76 from the July 2005 peak.

Surge in Midwest

The jump in sales in June was led by a 43 percent surge in the Midwest. Purchases increased 29 percent in the Northeast and 23 percent in the West. They dropped 5.3 percent in the South, to the lowest level since January 1991.

Builders had 281,000 houses on the market last month, down 4.1 percent from May and the fewest since February 1998. The number of unsold inventory fell a record 36 percent from June 2008. It would take 8.8 months to sell all homes at the current sales pace, the lowest level since October 2007.

Other reports underscore the stabilization in housing. The Wells Fargo/National Association of Homebuilders sentiment index has risen in five of the past six months and existing home sales have increased for three months in a row.

Even so, foreclosure filings reached a record in the first half of the year, providing competition for homebuilders and pushing down the value of all houses. Also, rising unemployment, which economists forecast will top 10 percent by early 2010, threatens to restrain any recovery in housing.

Smaller Losses

Standard Pacific Corp., the U.S. homebuilder that gets most of its revenue from California, is among companies seeing a stabilization. Its net loss, the 11th consecutive drop, narrowed to $23.1 million in the second quarter from $249 million a year earlier, the Irvine, California-based company said last week. Revenue fell 29 percent.

"While we still obviously have not achieved the level of profitability that we ultimately need, we are a lot closer than we were a couple of quarters ago and believe that we are in pretty good shape in the short run," Chief Executive Officer Ken Campbell said in a July 22 statement.

Federal Reserve policy makers have committed to a $1.25 trillion program to purchase securities backed by home loans in an effort to put a floor under the housing market and lower borrowing costs. Those purchases, as well as direct government purchases of Treasuries, drove the rate on 30-year mortgages to a record-low 4.78 percent in April, according to figures from Freddie Mac. Rates have since hovered around 5 percent.

Bernanke's View

Fed Chairman Bernanke said July 21 that the economy is showing "tentative signs of stabilization" and the "decline in housing activity appears to have moderated."

Another incentive is the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers that is part of the Obama administration's economic stimulus plan. Purchases have to be completed before Dec. 1.

NVR Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. homebuilder, said last week that new orders increased 2 percent in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. The rate of cancellations fell to 14 percent from 19 percent in the second quarter of 2008 and 15 percent in the first three months of this year.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2009/07/27/20090727biz-newhomesales0727.html

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Arizona Homes Realty, LLC.

New Reports.... Show Improvement in Arizona Housing Market

Two new reports show slow improvement is being made in the East Valley's new and existing home markets.

Home sales increase, median price down

Housing market may be changing course

Last month, new-home construction permits reached 1,018 across the Valley, the highest total in the last six months, according to the latest Phoenix Housing Market Letter by analyst RL Brown.

"That's the best news we've had for some time," he said. "We've seen a steady climb of permits, and that's good news, and we've come a long way from the 248 permits we saw in February. That tells us the speculative inventory (of new homes) is coming under control, and that means that future sales of new homes, future orders, will have to be built. That's the stimulus that we've been looking for."

The ongoing rise in new home construction permits will lead to increased hiring in construction trades, Brown said.

"Our expectation of a normal market in this town is probably somewhere in the upper 40,000s to lower 50,000s (permits per year), so obviously we're a long way from that," he said. "We've got a long way to go, but we've come a long way and the trend is the most significant thing."

New home sales in June were roughly identical to the previous month, while the median new home price was $190,000, up slightly from $188,837. New home prices have remained flat for the last three months after falling over the last year, Brown said.

"The new home prices ... have pretty well stabilized, and that's also a good sign," he said. "That just adds to the positive outlook. That gives us additional optimism about the overall market future."

Remaining speculative inventory still is being heavily discounted to compete with foreclosures, while new inventory is not being discounted, Brown said.

"That's a sign that those new products are more in tune with what the market opportunity is," he said.

As for the existing home market, the latest Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index shows a 35 percent drop in average Valley home prices from April 2008 to April 2009. That's down from the 37 percent drop in prices from March 2008 to March 2009.

And preliminary estimates show prices dropped 33 percent from May 2008 to May 2009, and 31 percent from June 2008 to June 2009.

April is the first month with a slower rate of annual decline, said Karl Guntermann, a real estate professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at ASU.

"The other positive is the median price in April was $117,000, down from $119,000 in March, and the preliminary median price for May is also down, at $115,000, but the preliminary median price for June is $119,000," he said. "So for the first time the median price has gone up. That's preliminary, but that tends to be a fairly good indicator."

"Foreclosures are still a dominant factor in the market," Guntermann said.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/141735