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Americans Are on the Move.... Moving to Arizona

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 Americans Are on the Move, Study Shows


More people are moving, according to Atlas Van Lines’ annual Migration Patterns study. In the 2010 U.S. Census, long-distance moves hit a record low. However, Atlas Van Lines says its recent study has shown monthly increases starting in late 2010 with the number of household who are back on the move again.

"As the economy forges ahead and the prevalence of these issues subsides, Americans are starting to move again," says Francis Yuen, an analyst with CoStar's Property & Portfolio Research. "The questions are: to where, and how can investors make money from it?"

Residents of Rust Belt states, in particular, are relocating, due to high unemployment numbers that plague the region. States next to the Rust Belt, therefore, are seeing some of the largest increases in new residents.

Here are some of the findings from the Migration Patterns study:

Washington, D.C. for the fifth year in a row had the highest percentage of inbound moves. Kentucky, North Carolina, and Maryland were popular states to move to.
Ohio had the highest percentage of people leaving, with Indiana also seeing an increase in people leaving the state.
Phoenix Arizona, , Austin, Texas, and Raleigh, N.C., are projected to have some of the strongest 2011 household growth rates.
Summer continues to be the most popular season for moving.

Source: “People Are Moving Again,” CoStar Group (Jan. 12, 2011)

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Comments

Candice & Roger Boggs said:

While data compiled in the 2010 Census suggests that long-distance moves hit a record low, more recent data indicates, Americans seem to be on the move again. In 2010, Atlas Van Lines saw increases in the number of household moves, a possible sign that the economy is improving, according to its annual Migration Patterns study.

"The results are especially promising this year, as the number of moves has increased, with monthly numbers higher than last year's," said Jack Griffin, president and COO of Atlas World Group.

For some states, outbound moves were high. Due to high unemployment, residents of the Rust Belt continue to relocate elsewhere. States adjacent to the Rust Belt saw a great increase in the number of inbound moves.

For the first time in two years, Kentucky joined its surrounding Mideast states-North Carolina, Maryland, and Washington, DC - as inbound states. For the fifth year in a row, Washington DC had the highest percentage of inbound moves, while Ohio had the highest percentage of outbound moves.

Several states have remained constant in status for 10 or more years. California, Kansas and South Carolina have been balanced, Indiana has been outbound, and Alaska and North Carolina have remained inbound.

As the year progressed, Atlas saw increases in the monthly totals of household moves. Summer months continued to see the highest number of moves per season. Overall, the total for 2010 was 74,541.

The reports in the past week based on Census data was compiled from data collected up through March 2010.

Francis Yuen, an analyst with CoStar's Property & Portfolio Research (PPR Global), says a host of factors have limited the average American's mobility over the past several years.

"A soft economy and limited job opportunities dissuaded some from moving, causing many to double or triple up in apartments or live with mom and dad," Yuen said. "The housing wreck left others unable to sell their homes at favorable prices. As a result, household growth and migration numbers dwindled."

That is changing, though, now Yuen said.

"As the economy forges ahead and the prevalence of these issues subsides, Americans are starting to move again," Yuen added. "The questions are: to where, and how can investors make money from it?"

If history is any indication, migration patterns have trended toward the Southeast and Southwest. And while research suggests much of this will continue to hold true, it isn't the entire story.

"Metros like Phoenix, Austin, and Raleigh are projected to have some of the strongest 2011 household growth rates," Yuen said, adding though that "most of these fast-growth metros will have household formation rates that will be below prerecession levels."

By and large, the increase in average household growth rate is a result of an aging population (more homes needed), people moving into their own apartments (as opposed to doubling or tripling up), and stronger growth in traditionally slow-growth metros, like Boston and Detroit, though they too will continue to have household formation that is well below average.

There are a handful of metros that have grown faster than the average over the past decade and are forecast to best their prerecession household growth rates in 2011. More importantly, household growth in these three metros - Salt Lake City, Seattle, and Portland - isn't solely a product of young adults moving out of their parents' basements. In fact, while in-migration in the Southeast and Southwest has yet to reach prerecession levels, the Pacific Northwest (and Salt Lake City) is seeing out-of-towners arrive in even greater numbers.

"Part of the rationale for these migration patterns can be attributed to job opportunities," Yuen said. "A number of major corporations, like Goldman Sachs (Salt Lake City), Intel (Portland), Boeing (Seattle), and Amazon.com (Seattle), have increased their presence in these metros over the past few years and are once again set on hiring."

"But another, more qualitative reason that cannot be overlooked is that those moving are seeking a higher quality of life," Yuen said. "The impact on these migration patterns will certainly have ramifications with regards to apartment demand and value. Although apartment demand in Salt Lake City, Portland, and Seattle will not shoot to the top of the rankings, expect it to outperform its historic averages in each market in the near term."

"As for values, 2011 may be the best time to invest in these metros," Yuen added. "While value growth will hardly be anything special in 2011, by 2012 Seattle and Salt Lake City are forecast to rank first and third in apartment value growth respectively, with Portland jumping into the top five by the outer years of the forecast. For savvy investors looking to get ahead in the New Year, the Pacific Northwest will be a great place to start."

# January 25, 2011 11:57 AM
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