Arizona reached milestone for 1st time in almost 5 years

Arizona retail sales rose 10.4 percent in January compared with the same month a year earlier, driven by strong sales of cars, trucks, building materials and clothing, the Arizona Department of Revenue said Friday.
That's the first time since June 2006 that the state has seen a double-digit growth in taxable retail sales, said Arizona State University economist Dennis Hoffman, who tracks retail sales closely to help state officials forecast sales-tax revenue.
"The interesting thing is that it's being fueled by durables," he said. "Motor-vehicle sales continue to be beyond robust and borderline explosive."
Motor-vehicle sales, which have been showing double-digit growth for several months, rose 28 percent in January compared with the previous January. Hoffman said consumers who shunned new-car purchases over the past three years are apparently feeling confident enough to spend.
Hoffman prefers to look at numbers over three months to smooth out volatile monthly changes. Looking at the November-through-January period, he said motor-vehicle sales have risen 25 percent; clothing, about 8 percent; building material, lawn and garden, about 6 percent; and furniture and furnishings, about 4 percent.
"Again, it is not a blockbuster-growth scenario like we have seen in the past, at least not yet," Hoffman said. "But one thing about Arizona's economy is that once it gets some momentum, it does tend to grow pretty rapidly."
Increased sales are good news for state and local governments, which are dependent on sales-tax revenue and continue to face deficits, he said.
But it's unknown how long the spending spree will last. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell in March to its lowest level since November 2009, Thomson Reuters reported Friday. The index dipped to 67.5 in March from 77.5 in February, and the drop was attributed to concerns over rising food and gas prices.
Hoffman said the decline could be because the survey was taken when gas prices were rising fast and the stock market was falling amid concerns about the earthquake in Japan and unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.
AAA Arizona reported Thursday that the average price of a gallon of unleaded gas increased just a penny and a half over the past week to $3.53.
Hoffman said that while continued monthly double-digit growth in retail sales is uncertain, the recent gains suggest moderate to robust growth in retail sales over the next several quarters as consumer confidence, job creation and in-migration improves.
"Those pessimists who believed that Arizona was down for the count may have to recalculate their assessments," he said.
Increased retail sales so far have resulted in more hiring in some categories, according to the latest jobs data released Thursday by the Arizona Department of Commerce.
General-merchandise stores, including department and discount stores, have added about 2,400 workers over the year and motor-vehicle and parts dealers, about 900.
Other categories, though, have fewer workers. Retail jobs overall fell by about 1,000 in February compared with February the year before.
Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/03/25/20110325arizona-taxable-sales-up-retail.html#ixzz1II7DQb5o
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